IMPACT SPORTS NEWS
Goings and Comings
The baseball playoffs are here and bring their usual excitement and interest during the week. But our former national pastime is just lost in the shuffle to all of us who have a different weekend agenda. This will be weekly column of thoughts and opinions from the previous week, along with what it ahead. Let’s get started and GO CUBS….....
Knowledge is Power
In last week’s column we told you that Road Favorites of 1-6.5 points were 13-2 ATS for 2003. If you were not paying attention to this then I say “Hey Buddy, you better REALLY pay attention this time”. This system went 5-0 ATS last week and I will add Houston from Tuesday night to bring you the updated total of 19-2 ATS. That folks is 90%.
Look at these teams: Oregon, Wisconsin, Michigan, Louisville and Washington.
The NFL is not immune from this type of system. Currently RF’s of 3 or less are 4-0 ATS. This week consider: Tennessee.
ATS College Football Winners and Losers
Utah 4-0 Temple 3-0 Stanford 3-0 Rutgers 4-0 LSU 4-0 Fresno St. 4-0
UAB 0-4 Texas A&M 0-4 Notre Dame 0-4 Missi. State 0-4 Buffalo 0-4
Quick Hits…………
Texas Tech and Mississippi combined for 1,264 yards including 1,064 passing…..Tennessee was in a flat spot but hung on to win despite being beaten at their own game, when the Gamecocks out-rushed the Vols 217-117….. Despite 4 turnovers, Arkansas hammered the Crimson Tide on the ground with a great 14 point, 4th quarter comeback. The Razorbacks secured the victory and the cover in overtime….. Impact Sports had Michigan State plus the points last Saturday who easily won and covered despite seven FD’s…..The Cal Bears played an outstanding game at home against USC, gaining 468 total yards in route to the HUGE Pac-10 upset. So much for the Bears being tired….. Pittsburgh came up with a clutch performance on the road, yet we see still one troubling future problem for the Panthers, which is defense. Pitt. is currently #81 in total defense giving up 385 ypg.
Team of the Weak
In all honesty we could pick the Buffalo Bulls every week, but that would be unfair. We will stay in the MAC Conference for this week’s unfortunate squad. When Central Florida joined the MAC last season C Kruczek offended a number of coaches by saying he expected to win the conference in his first year. The Golden Knights had a good year last season with a second place finish in their division and 7-5 overall. Many preseason magazines and so-called experts had UCF winning the MAC this season. (Not Impact Sports) Here we are in October and UCF sits with a 1-3 record coming off an 8 turnover performance at not so mighty Kent State. Having watched them against Virginia Tech, you would have believed this team should be no worse then 2-2 based on the schedule. Maybe a short trip to Disney World and a ride on “It’s Small World” will after all fix this talented underachieving team.
Learning Curve
In College Football RF’s that are 14+ points are 13-3 ATS 81% this season. Keep an eye on Hawaii-16, Oklahoma -21, Colorado -20.5, Virginia Tech -28, Air Force -16.5 and Western Michigan -15. Keep in mind we believe that one of these teams is capable of losing the game outright this Saturday. Stay tuned.
NFL Notes
Home Dogs continue at an unusually poor 3-12 ATS in the 2003 season. Normally these dogs win at 59%. This is of note and may well prove to be an early anomaly. Definitely worth following as the season progresses.
The Cardinals followed their upset victory over the Packers with a more typical Arizona performance. Bidwell’s team was out first-downed 34-7 and out-gained 401-161.
Last week one of our plays was the Ravens + 3. Baltimore drove to the 8-yard line of K.C. in the first quarter and decided not to kick the easy FG and lost the ball on downs. In the 3rd Quarter they scored TD’s on the same drive only to have each one rescinded because of penalties. After evening the score at 10-10 with 5 minutes to go in the contest, the Ravens kicked off and stopped KR Hall at the 18-yard line. The Ravens were off-sides and had to re-kick, from which they paid the price, as Hall returned a kick-off for a TD(sixth time in nine games) thus effectively ending the game. Tough loss for Impact Sports.
Last week we mentioned here that teams that do or don’t cover 3 straight are good 62% of the time. Last week 3 of the 4 teams that had covered their first three games did so again. This week, New England has covered 3 straight, while Chicago, Jacksonville and Atlanta have lost 3 straight against the spread.
One of our favorite stats and indicators in the NFL is rushing attempts. In the NFL if you rush the ball 25 times you will be in position to win. Week Four results:
SU record 6-2 ATS record 6-2 To Date SU 41-7 85% ATS 39-9 81%
How can you tell if a team is going to rush 25 or more times? Of course a variety of factors need to be assessed, but we recommend the following:
*Coach’s patience and commitment to running game
*History of running the ball
*Strength of offense line
*Weakness of defensive line
*Lead running back who can close game
LINE MOVEMENT
One feature that Impact Sports likes to follow is line movement early in the week. This is considered when the “sharps” look to take advantage of weak lines and help move them accordingly. Once posted, we review them later in the day on Tuesday and see what direction these guys are thinking. Last year, CFB was only 129-130 in early line movement, but the NFL was a profitable 36-25 ATS.
Last Week CFB 4-2
Season to Date 14-10
Last Week NFL 1-1
Season to Date 4-9
This Week’s Line Movement
Minnesota Open -8.5 Tuesday -10.5
Air Force Open -16.5 Tuesday -14.5
Miami-O Open -21 Tuesday -17
Memphis Open -11 Tuesday -9
Miss. St. Open -6.5 Tuesday -4.5
Washington Open -30 Tuesday -27.5
California Open -2 Tuesday +1.5
Hawaii Open -16 Tuesday -10
BYU Open – 1.5 Tuesday +1.5
UNLV Open -3 Tuesday -5.5
Okla. State Open -37 Tuesday -35
Mia./NYG Open Tot. 39 Tuesday Tot. 37.5
Det./SF Open Tot. 42.5 Tuesday Tot. 44
Eagles Open -4 Tuesday -5.5
Surprising Spreads
N.C. State -7 over Georgia Tech The Techsters are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Wolfpack.
USC -10.5 over Ariz.State Angry “Wild Bunch 2” look to exploit offensively challenged Sun Devils.
Jacksonville -3 over San Diego Is it right for either losers to be favored?
Minnesota -4 over Atlanta Did we miss something? Is QB Vick coming back this weekend
Goings and Comings
The baseball playoffs are here and bring their usual excitement and interest during the week. But our former national pastime is just lost in the shuffle to all of us who have a different weekend agenda. This will be weekly column of thoughts and opinions from the previous week, along with what it ahead. Let’s get started and GO CUBS….....
Knowledge is Power
In last week’s column we told you that Road Favorites of 1-6.5 points were 13-2 ATS for 2003. If you were not paying attention to this then I say “Hey Buddy, you better REALLY pay attention this time”. This system went 5-0 ATS last week and I will add Houston from Tuesday night to bring you the updated total of 19-2 ATS. That folks is 90%.
Look at these teams: Oregon, Wisconsin, Michigan, Louisville and Washington.
The NFL is not immune from this type of system. Currently RF’s of 3 or less are 4-0 ATS. This week consider: Tennessee.
ATS College Football Winners and Losers
Utah 4-0 Temple 3-0 Stanford 3-0 Rutgers 4-0 LSU 4-0 Fresno St. 4-0
UAB 0-4 Texas A&M 0-4 Notre Dame 0-4 Missi. State 0-4 Buffalo 0-4
Quick Hits…………
Texas Tech and Mississippi combined for 1,264 yards including 1,064 passing…..Tennessee was in a flat spot but hung on to win despite being beaten at their own game, when the Gamecocks out-rushed the Vols 217-117….. Despite 4 turnovers, Arkansas hammered the Crimson Tide on the ground with a great 14 point, 4th quarter comeback. The Razorbacks secured the victory and the cover in overtime….. Impact Sports had Michigan State plus the points last Saturday who easily won and covered despite seven FD’s…..The Cal Bears played an outstanding game at home against USC, gaining 468 total yards in route to the HUGE Pac-10 upset. So much for the Bears being tired….. Pittsburgh came up with a clutch performance on the road, yet we see still one troubling future problem for the Panthers, which is defense. Pitt. is currently #81 in total defense giving up 385 ypg.
Team of the Weak
In all honesty we could pick the Buffalo Bulls every week, but that would be unfair. We will stay in the MAC Conference for this week’s unfortunate squad. When Central Florida joined the MAC last season C Kruczek offended a number of coaches by saying he expected to win the conference in his first year. The Golden Knights had a good year last season with a second place finish in their division and 7-5 overall. Many preseason magazines and so-called experts had UCF winning the MAC this season. (Not Impact Sports) Here we are in October and UCF sits with a 1-3 record coming off an 8 turnover performance at not so mighty Kent State. Having watched them against Virginia Tech, you would have believed this team should be no worse then 2-2 based on the schedule. Maybe a short trip to Disney World and a ride on “It’s Small World” will after all fix this talented underachieving team.
Learning Curve
In College Football RF’s that are 14+ points are 13-3 ATS 81% this season. Keep an eye on Hawaii-16, Oklahoma -21, Colorado -20.5, Virginia Tech -28, Air Force -16.5 and Western Michigan -15. Keep in mind we believe that one of these teams is capable of losing the game outright this Saturday. Stay tuned.
NFL Notes
Home Dogs continue at an unusually poor 3-12 ATS in the 2003 season. Normally these dogs win at 59%. This is of note and may well prove to be an early anomaly. Definitely worth following as the season progresses.
The Cardinals followed their upset victory over the Packers with a more typical Arizona performance. Bidwell’s team was out first-downed 34-7 and out-gained 401-161.
Last week one of our plays was the Ravens + 3. Baltimore drove to the 8-yard line of K.C. in the first quarter and decided not to kick the easy FG and lost the ball on downs. In the 3rd Quarter they scored TD’s on the same drive only to have each one rescinded because of penalties. After evening the score at 10-10 with 5 minutes to go in the contest, the Ravens kicked off and stopped KR Hall at the 18-yard line. The Ravens were off-sides and had to re-kick, from which they paid the price, as Hall returned a kick-off for a TD(sixth time in nine games) thus effectively ending the game. Tough loss for Impact Sports.
Last week we mentioned here that teams that do or don’t cover 3 straight are good 62% of the time. Last week 3 of the 4 teams that had covered their first three games did so again. This week, New England has covered 3 straight, while Chicago, Jacksonville and Atlanta have lost 3 straight against the spread.
One of our favorite stats and indicators in the NFL is rushing attempts. In the NFL if you rush the ball 25 times you will be in position to win. Week Four results:
SU record 6-2 ATS record 6-2 To Date SU 41-7 85% ATS 39-9 81%
How can you tell if a team is going to rush 25 or more times? Of course a variety of factors need to be assessed, but we recommend the following:
*Coach’s patience and commitment to running game
*History of running the ball
*Strength of offense line
*Weakness of defensive line
*Lead running back who can close game
LINE MOVEMENT
One feature that Impact Sports likes to follow is line movement early in the week. This is considered when the “sharps” look to take advantage of weak lines and help move them accordingly. Once posted, we review them later in the day on Tuesday and see what direction these guys are thinking. Last year, CFB was only 129-130 in early line movement, but the NFL was a profitable 36-25 ATS.
Last Week CFB 4-2
Season to Date 14-10
Last Week NFL 1-1
Season to Date 4-9
This Week’s Line Movement
Minnesota Open -8.5 Tuesday -10.5
Air Force Open -16.5 Tuesday -14.5
Miami-O Open -21 Tuesday -17
Memphis Open -11 Tuesday -9
Miss. St. Open -6.5 Tuesday -4.5
Washington Open -30 Tuesday -27.5
California Open -2 Tuesday +1.5
Hawaii Open -16 Tuesday -10
BYU Open – 1.5 Tuesday +1.5
UNLV Open -3 Tuesday -5.5
Okla. State Open -37 Tuesday -35
Mia./NYG Open Tot. 39 Tuesday Tot. 37.5
Det./SF Open Tot. 42.5 Tuesday Tot. 44
Eagles Open -4 Tuesday -5.5
Surprising Spreads
N.C. State -7 over Georgia Tech The Techsters are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Wolfpack.
USC -10.5 over Ariz.State Angry “Wild Bunch 2” look to exploit offensively challenged Sun Devils.
Jacksonville -3 over San Diego Is it right for either losers to be favored?
Minnesota -4 over Atlanta Did we miss something? Is QB Vick coming back this weekend
